Monday, February 6, 2017

Taking A Look At Houston & Memphis Tournament Profiles

The American Conference is looking more and more like a two bid league, but if they want to get any more teams in the NCAA Tournament they will need Houston and Memphis do play well down the stretch. 


Houston's Profile:
Record: 16-7
RPI: 60
SOS 71
KenPom: 43
Good Wins: Rhode Island
Bad Losses: UCF, Harvard


Houston simply doesn't have enough good wins.  The Cougars are 1-3 against the Top 50 in RPI so they have had their chances.  According to bracketmatrix.com which tracks the top 84 bracketologist in the nation, just 5 of the 84 currently have the Cougars in.

Houston in certainly still in play for an at large bid because they still have some big games left.  The Cougars still play the top three teams in the conference; @ #11 Cincy vs, #25 SMU, and @ Memphis. Throw in the the AAC Tournament and the Cougars could still make a run at the tournament.

In their last 7 games Houston must beat Tulane, ECU, UConn, and Tulsa.  They probably need to win at least 2/3 of Cincinnati, SMU, and Memphis.  One more bad loss and the Cougars are out of consideration for the NCAA Tournament.

Memphis' Profile:
Record:  17-7
RPI: 83
SOS: 163
KenPom: 85
Good Wins: South Carolina
Bad Losses: UCF, Tulsa

At first glance, Houston's numbers a lot better than Memphis, but the Tigers beat Houston on the road.  On Bracketmatrix.com just 2 out of 84 bracketologist have Memphis in. Just like Houston, Memphis also has some opportunities upcoming. Memphis' loss to UCF on Saturday hurt them bad.

They also will play Cincy and SMU who are both ranked and Memphis will have to beat both to get in I believe.  In their final 7 games Tubby Smith's team has to go 6-1 and if that happens they still will have to get into the finals of the AAC Championship.

Although it seems unlikely, last year Tulsa got in and had a worse profile than both of these teams.  Regardless, Memphis and Houston has to win.  When they meet on Febuary 26th it may be an elimination game.

Friday, February 3, 2017

AAC Saturday Previews & Predictions: February 4th



American Conference in basketball is back here for action.  There are four games on the slate and the top four teams in the conference are all playing on Saturday.  Here's our weekly preview and prediction.


Tulane @ East Carolina 2:00
- Both of these teams sit near the bottom of the American conference, but both have played better lately. Tulane dropped two close games against UConn and Temple, both of which they were at least tied in the 2nd half. ECU on the other hand was thrashed by SMU, but lost in Memphis 57-50 and beat Tulsa 69-66.


- East Carolina simply has no offense. They are 364th in the nation in points scored a game at 61.1. Acting Head Coach Michael Perry is currently filling in for Jeff Lebo who recently had hip surgery. 


- BJ Tyson is their best player and he currently isn't doing much. Kentrell Barkley had back to back double-double's before the SMU game and is probably their hottest player right know.  All though they lack inside play they do get rebounds and play very solid defense.  Those are the reasons why they aren't sitting in last place and have two conference wins. 


- For Tulane, their leading scorer Cameron Reynolds is coming off of a career night against Temple in which he put up 29 points in a lost to the Owls.  Also big man Ryan Smith has been a pretty big positive for Mike Dunleavy this year.  But he will have a big job trying to keep ECU off the boards.


- ECU opened up as a 6.5 favorite in Vegas, but is now down to a 5 point favorite so all the money is going on Tulane. The Green Wave had played good lately so I think it's time for them to get a win.  But Ryan Smith along with guards Malik Morgan and other will have to keep ECU's bigs off the boards.


UConn @ #14 Cincinnati 4:00
- The Bearcats win streak is now at 13 after a big comeback win to beat Tulsa. 


- Cincinnati has improved mightily on offense this year and is always great defensively.


- I feel since Cincinnati could not make a bucket last game they are bound to come out hot for this game.  I firmly believe Cincinnati played their worst game of the year on Wednesday night.


- UConn has won three straight, but they were against the worst three teams in the conference in USF, Tulane, and ECU.  In may be what they needed to get out of their slump, but I still think they will have a lot of trouble with Cincinnati.


- UConn has got to make this game ugly because they simply do not have the offensive fire power to stay in this game.  Jalen Adams can't do it all.  They have to try to create 2nd chance points like Tulsa did against Cincy so Amida Brimah is going to half to play well. 


- Cincinnati's is honoring their 1992 final four team in front of a sold out 5/3rd arena. 


- Kevin Ollie is in his 5th season as coach of the Huskies and he has never won inside 5/3rd arena, he is 0-4.


- As long as Cincinnati doesn't turn the ball over they should win. I feel pretty confident with the ball in Senior point guards Troy Caupain's hands.


- For my prediction, I feel like Cincinnati has too many weapons.  Take your pick, Troy Caupain, Jacob Evans, Gary Clark, Kyle Washington, even Kevin Johnson can all do some serious damage.  The Bearcats win 80-65.


Memphis @ Central Florida 5:00
- Memphis is the best shot the American has to get a third team in the tournament and this game is a must win to stay in the tournament hunt. 


- A couple weeks ago Memphis beat Central Florida 70-65 in which the Tigers gave UCF every chance to win that game.


- UCF is in need of a win.  After starting AAC play 5-1 they have dropped 4 straight and currently sit 5-5 in the conference. 


- Central Florida should dominate the boards in this game. They were +13 in the first meeting, but that is why I appreciate the job Tubby Smith has done. They get pounded on the boards every game and yet Memphis is still 15-5. 


- Memphis loves to distribute and they lead the league in assist because they have so many ball handlers.  They do not turn the ball over while that seems to be an Achilles heel for Central Florida. 


- Tacko Fall played his best game of the season in their first meeting scoring 16 and grabbing 13 rebounds. 


- Defense is the key for Central Florida.  They must slow the Lawson's done somehow. The Knights are 7th in the nation in scoring allowing 61 while Memphis puts up over 77 points a game so something has to give. 


- This will be a tight game, just like everyone of Memphis', but Dedric Lawson will be to much and Memphis needs this win in a bad way.  Memphis is a 2 point favorite right now and Tubby Smith and Memphis have been money in close games this year.  Tigers win 75-71.


SMU @ Tulsa 7:00
- I've been saying all year the hardest team to figure out in the AAC is Temple, but now I think it is Tulsa.  The Golden were projected the finish 9th in the preseason poll.  If they didn't choke late against #14 Cincinnati they would be 7-2 and in solo third.


- SMU needs this because they are the only team that can beat Cincinnati.  So a loss would really hurt their chances at winning the regular season conference tittle.


- Tulsa is starting to get physical on the boards in conference play.  They crushed Cincinnati who is usually a good rebounding team.  SMU is just as good with every player standing between 6"3-6"8.


- Ben Moore, Shake Milton, and Semi Ojeleye have SMU on tear lately.  Ever since their loss to Cincinnati SMU has won games by 16, 20, 21, 5, & 40 points.  That's called domination.


- Semi Ojeleye is the best player on this team and everybody knows that, but Shake Milton has put up at least 19 points in the Mustangs last 5 games.  Along with him Moore, and Sterling Brown, there are not too many teams that can beat the Ponies.


- Vegas has SMU favored by 6.5 and I think the SMU defense will stifle Tulsa.  If Semi Ojeleye can play decent then SMU should win.  Plus I have no confidence after the way Tulsa "attempting" to close out Cincinnati on Wednesday.




-