Taking A Look At Houston & Memphis Tournament Profiles

The American Conference is looking more and more like a two bid league, but if they want to get any more teams in the NCAA Tournament they will need Houston and Memphis do play well down the stretch. 


Houston's Profile:
Record: 16-7
RPI: 60
SOS 71
KenPom: 43
Good Wins: Rhode Island
Bad Losses: UCF, Harvard

Houston simply doesn't have enough good wins.  The Cougars are 1-3 against the Top 50 in RPI so they have had their chances.  According to bracketmatrix.com which tracks the top 84 bracketologist in the nation, just 5 of the 84 currently have the Cougars in.

Houston in certainly still in play for an at large bid because they still have some big games left.  The Cougars still play the top three teams in the conference; @ #11 Cincy vs, #25 SMU, and @ Memphis. Throw in the the AAC Tournament and the Cougars could still make a run at the tournament.

In their last 7 games Houston must beat Tulane, ECU, UConn, and Tulsa.  They probably need to win at least 2/3 of Cincinnati, SMU, and Memphis.  One more bad loss and the Cougars are out of consideration for the NCAA Tournament.

Memphis' Profile:
Record:  17-7
RPI: 83
SOS: 163
KenPom: 85
Good Wins: South Carolina
Bad Losses: UCF, Tulsa

At first glance, Houston's numbers a lot better than Memphis, but the Tigers beat Houston on the road.  On Bracketmatrix.com just 2 out of 84 bracketologist have Memphis in. Just like Houston, Memphis also has some opportunities upcoming. Memphis' loss to UCF on Saturday hurt them bad.

They also will play Cincy and SMU who are both ranked and Memphis will have to beat both to get in I believe.  In their final 7 games Tubby Smith's team has to go 6-1 and if that happens they still will have to get into the finals of the AAC Championship.

Although it seems unlikely, last year Tulsa got in and had a worse profile than both of these teams.  Regardless, Memphis and Houston has to win.  When they meet on Febuary 26th it may be an elimination game.

AAC Saturday Previews & Predictions: February 4th

American Conference in basketball is back here for action.  There are four games on the slate and the top four teams in the conference are all playing on Saturday.  Here's our weekly preview and prediction.


Tulane @ East Carolina 2:00
- Both of these teams sit near the bottom of the American conference, but both have played better lately. Tulane dropped two close games against UConn and Temple, both of which they were at least tied in the 2nd half. ECU on the other hand was thrashed by SMU, but lost in Memphis 57-50 and beat Tulsa 69-66.


- East Carolina simply has no offense. They are 364th in the nation in points scored a game at 61.1. Acting Head Coach Michael Perry is currently filling in for Jeff Lebo who recently had hip surgery. 


- BJ Tyson is their best player and he currently isn't doing much. Kentrell Barkley had back to back double-double's before the SMU game and is probably their hottest player right know.  All though they lack inside play they do get rebounds and play very solid defense.  Those are the reasons why they aren't sitting in last place and have two conference wins. 


- For Tulane, their leading scorer Cameron Reynolds is coming off of a career night against Temple in which he put up 29 points in a lost to the Owls.  Also big man Ryan Smith has been a pretty big positive for Mike Dunleavy this year.  But he will have a big job trying to keep ECU off the boards.


- ECU opened up as a 6.5 favorite in Vegas, but is now down to a 5 point favorite so all the money is going on Tulane. The Green Wave had played good lately so I think it's time for them to get a win.  But Ryan Smith along with guards Malik Morgan and other will have to keep ECU's bigs off the boards.


UConn @ #14 Cincinnati 4:00
- The Bearcats win streak is now at 13 after a big comeback win to beat Tulsa. 


- Cincinnati has improved mightily on offense this year and is always great defensively.


- I feel since Cincinnati could not make a bucket last game they are bound to come out hot for this game.  I firmly believe Cincinnati played their worst game of the year on Wednesday night.


- UConn has won three straight, but they were against the worst three teams in the conference in USF, Tulane, and ECU.  In may be what they needed to get out of their slump, but I still think they will have a lot of trouble with Cincinnati.


- UConn has got to make this game ugly because they simply do not have the offensive fire power to stay in this game.  Jalen Adams can't do it all.  They have to try to create 2nd chance points like Tulsa did against Cincy so Amida Brimah is going to half to play well. 


- Cincinnati's is honoring their 1992 final four team in front of a sold out 5/3rd arena. 


- Kevin Ollie is in his 5th season as coach of the Huskies and he has never won inside 5/3rd arena, he is 0-4.


- As long as Cincinnati doesn't turn the ball over they should win. I feel pretty confident with the ball in Senior point guards Troy Caupain's hands.


- For my prediction, I feel like Cincinnati has too many weapons.  Take your pick, Troy Caupain, Jacob Evans, Gary Clark, Kyle Washington, even Kevin Johnson can all do some serious damage.  The Bearcats win 80-65.


Memphis @ Central Florida 5:00
- Memphis is the best shot the American has to get a third team in the tournament and this game is a must win to stay in the tournament hunt. 


- A couple weeks ago Memphis beat Central Florida 70-65 in which the Tigers gave UCF every chance to win that game.


- UCF is in need of a win.  After starting AAC play 5-1 they have dropped 4 straight and currently sit 5-5 in the conference. 


- Central Florida should dominate the boards in this game. They were +13 in the first meeting, but that is why I appreciate the job Tubby Smith has done. They get pounded on the boards every game and yet Memphis is still 15-5. 


- Memphis loves to distribute and they lead the league in assist because they have so many ball handlers.  They do not turn the ball over while that seems to be an Achilles heel for Central Florida. 


- Tacko Fall played his best game of the season in their first meeting scoring 16 and grabbing 13 rebounds. 


- Defense is the key for Central Florida.  They must slow the Lawson's done somehow. The Knights are 7th in the nation in scoring allowing 61 while Memphis puts up over 77 points a game so something has to give. 


- This will be a tight game, just like everyone of Memphis', but Dedric Lawson will be to much and Memphis needs this win in a bad way.  Memphis is a 2 point favorite right now and Tubby Smith and Memphis have been money in close games this year.  Tigers win 75-71.


SMU @ Tulsa 7:00
- I've been saying all year the hardest team to figure out in the AAC is Temple, but now I think it is Tulsa.  The Golden were projected the finish 9th in the preseason poll.  If they didn't choke late against #14 Cincinnati they would be 7-2 and in solo third.


- SMU needs this because they are the only team that can beat Cincinnati.  So a loss would really hurt their chances at winning the regular season conference tittle.


- Tulsa is starting to get physical on the boards in conference play.  They crushed Cincinnati who is usually a good rebounding team.  SMU is just as good with every player standing between 6"3-6"8.


- Ben Moore, Shake Milton, and Semi Ojeleye have SMU on tear lately.  Ever since their loss to Cincinnati SMU has won games by 16, 20, 21, 5, & 40 points.  That's called domination.


- Semi Ojeleye is the best player on this team and everybody knows that, but Shake Milton has put up at least 19 points in the Mustangs last 5 games.  Along with him Moore, and Sterling Brown, there are not too many teams that can beat the Ponies.


- Vegas has SMU favored by 6.5 and I think the SMU defense will stifle Tulsa.  If Semi Ojeleye can play decent then SMU should win.  Plus I have no confidence after the way Tulsa "attempting" to close out Cincinnati on Wednesday.




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American Conference Basketball In Review: Tulsa's Big Win, Memphis, UConn's Ugly Wins, Cincy Takes care Of Buisness And Houston Stays Alive

Another week off American hoops is in the books and here's the wrap.


Central Florida 66 Tulsa 77: This game was a lot closer than the score indicated, but none the less Tulsa gets their 6th league win.  Central Florida lead for most of the 2nd half until a huge run for Tulsa to close out the game. UCF lost the game in that span.  They went 7 minutes without a basket.  They finally ended that drought with a BJ Taylor 3 with just 58 seconds left. The last 8 minutes was a 25-11 run if favor of the Golden Hurricane.


What a job Frank Haith has done with this extremely young Tulsa team.  Golden Hurricane were projected 9th in the AAC Coaches poll, but sit alone in 3rd at 6-2.  It was one of the few seniors on this team that lead the scoring for Tulsa in Pat Birt. Birt put up 19 points including 3 three pointers.


Tulsa plays the two best teams in the American next week in Cincinnati and SMU and they are both at home.  Two upset wins and that COULD get Tulsa on the bubble conversation which nobody was expecting this year.  It's a tall task, but it is possible with both games being at home.


For Central Florida on the other hand, any chance they had at an at large bid is probably gone. They sit at 14-7 and 5-4 in the AAC which is still better than expected, but the turnover bug has killed them. They had 16 turnovers yesterday compared to Tulsa's 10.  Also BJ Taylor scored 23 but he needs some help, he can't do it all. Central Florida also has a huge stretch with Memphis, Houston and Cincinnati upcoming.


East Carolina 50 Memphis 57: This game was very ugly and that's usually how East Carolina wins.  Memphis could not afford a bad loss at home and expect to still make the NCAA Tournament.   Both Dedric and KJ Lawson both struggled early as ECU took a 22-19 lead into the break, but Jimario Rivers got Memphis out to a big lead in the 2nd half. The Tigers could not pull away, but it was good enough for a W. Rivers led Memphis with 15 points.


Memphis just needs to keep winning.  Tubby Smith's team is starting to creep into the "First Four Out" category in most bracket projections.  Honestly, Memphis should win their next 6 games and if they happen to lose one then it will be a bad loss. 


They can get away with a bad offensive performance against a team like ECU, but they can't struggle like this down the stretch.  Ecspecially, the Preseason Player of the Year Dedric Lawson who scored just 8 points.  KJ Lawson had a double-double with 12 points and 19; yes 19 rebounds.


As for ECU, they are getting better. Interim coach Michael Perry has this team showing some fight. They lost on the road to UConn and Memphis in two highly competed contest and pulled off an upset win over Tulsa.  Coach Perry is doing a pretty good job considering how much this team lacks offensive talent.


Tulane 68 UConn 78: The Green Wave played their best game of the year through the first 35 minutes but it came crashing down in the final 5 minutes of the game. Kenton Facey and Amida Brimah had 20 & 18 respectfully as UConn escaped an upset on Saturday.  The difference was UConn's defense down the final stretch as Tulane crumbled late. Believe it or not, Tulane led this game 58-55.  Huskies also finished +14 on the boards.


At this point for UConn it's all about improving their seeding for the conference tournament. UConn is always dangerous in March and plus they will have home court advantage for the AAC Tournament. The Huskies are 10-11, but they need to build momentum for the tournament and get a first round bye.  Currently, they would be the #7 seed and play in the first round with a rematch against #10 Tulane.


For the most part it seemed like it would be Mike Dunleavy's biggest win of the year. You can't knock Tulane for effort. They are 4-17 on the year and had every reason not show up, but they just could not hit a shot in the closing minutes. Ryan Smith held his own with his baby hook shot, but had just one rebound before fouling out.  You can't allow a team to go on a 17-0 second half run and expect to win, no matter how hot Tulane started the game.


Houston 79 Temple 66:  Big bounce back win for Houston.  The Coogs got back on track to keep their NCAA hopes alive. Rob Gray Jr had 28 points and was perfect from the free throw line. If the season ended right now he would have my vote for conference player of the year. Temple is a good defensive team but they had no answer last night.  Enechionyia kept Temple within fighting distance for the Owls. He had struggled his last couple of games, but go back on track with 16 points. 


This Cougar has one of the best guard play in the conference and they showed it last night with Gray and Dotson combining for 48 points. Houston is 15-7 and needs some big wins to make the big dance.  They play UCF, Tulane, & Tulsa in their next three and need wins in all off them.


For Temple, this continues to be the most confusing team in the nation .  This team has beaten two top 15 teams currently in Florida State and West Virginia and it looked like they would make the tournament when conference play started, but they are at 2-7 in the AAC and have zero chance of making the big dance.


South Florida 53 Cincinnati 94: It was all Bearcats from the start to finish.  I thought Cincinnati may have a let down game after the big Crosstown Shootout victory, but they didn't.  It never crossed my mind that would lose, but I thought it would be around 10-15 points and boy was I wrong. The Bearcats forced 24 turnovers and won their 12th straight game. 


Cincinnati will have Tulsa coming up Wednesday.  The Bearcats at this point should be counting the days until they face SMU in Dallas. This is a top 15 basketball team. 


For South Florida this one was over before it started with their leading scorer Geno Thorpe out with an injury.  USF takes on Memphis and Temple next, but I think they will get their first win over ECU in a couple of weeks. Better days ahead for Bull basketball fans. 

American Athletic Conference Power Rankings: Week 10

Another week of basketball is in the books are here are the Power ranking after Week 10. Some very big games this week featuring the two best teams in the conference as SMU travels to Cincinnati on Thursday night.  Also Houston/UCF will play this week.  Plus, the worst teams meet in the league...South Florida/Tulane on Wednesday.
1. Cincinnati 13-2, 3-0: The fighting Cronins stay in the top spot after a win over Houston. Cincinnati got a big game from Kyle Washington who scored 19 points and played their vintage Mick Cronin defense. The game was never in doubt as the Bearcats got the win 67-58. NEXT WEEK vs. SMU, @ East Carolina
2. SMU 14-3, 4-0: The Ponies are 4-0 after an easy home victory over Temple 79-65.  The Owls tried to get back in it, but it was to little to late.  Then it was dunk city as Semi Ojeleye and company pounded South Florida 84-65. In all 14 of there wins no opponent has broken 67 points. NEXT WEEK: vs. Cincinnati, @ Tulane
3. Memphis 12-4, 2-1: Tubby Smith and Memphis got their first and second win of AAC play and both were won in dominate fashion over UConn and Tulane.  Something about this teams feels different with Smith than it did Josh Pastner.  Any way, Dedric Lawson showed once again why he is the best player in the American.  NEXT WEEK: @ Tulsa, vs.USF
4. Houston 3-1, 12-4: It was a close call, but Houston narrowly escaped Tulsa 64-61.  This was a big win because Rob Gray was out with the flew and anytime you have that is putting up 20 points a game not playing, your going to struggle a little. The Cougars held their own on the glass with Tulsa and knocked down their free throws.  On Saturday they fell for the first time in AAC play 67-58 to Cincinnati.  Coogs hung strong, but they could not stop Kyle Washington and the Cincinnati defense was too much in the end. NEXT WEEK: @ ECU, @ UCF
5. Central Florida 3-1, 12-4: Tacko Fall didn't score this entire week and that is not good. The 7'6 big man was held scoreless over ECU, but the Knights got an ugly 48-45 home win. KenPom called this the worst game of basketball this year...UCF could get away with Fall not scoring against ECU, but not against UConn as UCF simply just got waxed.  BJ Taylor was the only bright spot against the Huskies.  Central Florida can still get an at large bid, but this was the UCF team everyone thought we would see at the beginning of the year. NEXT WEEK: vs. Houston
6. Temple 1-3, 10-7: After beating Florida State and West Virginia to start the year, those 2 wins were thrown away with a 0-3 start to conference play.  This week they fell to SMU 79-65.  Temple went on a little run late and got it back to single digits, but the game was never in danger.  On Saturday they blew out ECU as expected to get their first conference win, but Temple cannot have any more bad losses. They are in a deep hole starting 0-3. 
7. Tulsa 1-1, 7-7: It was great effort, but Tulsa could not pull out a win against Houston. It was a big chance to get a solid win with Rob Gray out, but Tulsa simply could not hit a shot late in the game.  Frank Haith has a very young team so the expirence in close games will help the next couple of years.  Plus, Tulsa has a very favorable schedule in the next coming weeks. NEXT WEEK: vs. Memphis, @ Temple
8. UConn 1-3, 6-9: After falling to Memphis on the road, the Huskies came back with a blow out win over a solid UCF.  We will see what Kevin Ollie's team can do from here on out.  All UConn fans want is for them to get healthy and the conference tournament to start. NEXT WEEK: vs. Temple, @ Georgetown
9. East Carolina 1-3, 9-8: Earlier in the week I wrote this piece asking if it was time for Jeff Lebo to be fired. ECU was crushed by Temple 81-62 and the Pirates are starting to move backward after starting the conference season with a win. Also BJ Tyson continues to struggle after that sensational freshman year he had a down sophomore year and that continues now. NEXT WEEK vs. Houston, vs. Cincinnati
10. South Florida 0-3, 6-8: Murray Bartow is now the top man is South Florida after Coach Antigua was fired. Bartow had a tall task in playing SMU in Dallas. Bulls hung tough and hit 10 three pointers, but it wasn't enough.  All in all, it was a decent showing from Bartow. NEXT WEEK: vs. Tulane, @ Memphis
11. Tulane 0-3, 3-12: Once again the Wave were blown out this week against Memphis 80-59. There is no way to go around it, Mike Dunleavy's team is just bad, but give him a couple of years and Wave basketball may be somewhere. Other than that, not much positive coming from the Big Easy with just 3 wins. NEXT WEEK: @ USF, vs. SMU

American Athletic Conference Power Rankings

1. Cincinnati (12-2, 2-0): Jarron Cumberland is starting to show everyone why he was so highly recruited. Cumberland had a career high in points as the Bearcats crushed Tulane. In their opener, Cincinnati got a huge 56-50 win over Temple which should boost their RPI.  The Bearcats are playing some great basketball right now. NEXT WEEK: @ Houston


2. SMU (12-3, 2-0): Tim Jankoich is 2-0 in AAC play.  Mustangs got an ugly win on the road at Memphis 58-54.  They played their typical defense which ranks top 20 in the nation.  SMU came back with a blowout win over East Carolina on the road as well. A big stretch is up coming as SMU will play Temple and Cincinnati in their next three games. NEXT WEEK: vs. Temple, vs. South Florida






3. Houston (11-3, 2-0): What a game Houston played against UConn. Houston held them to 12 points at halftime before eventually blowing out the Huskies. The Cougars followed it up with another blowout of South Florida. Rob Gray Jr was named the American player of the week and he deserved it with a 20 point game against UConn and then 25 against USF.  Houston has a huge one against Cincinnati this week and I do not want to see an empty arena like I usually do down in Houston. This team deserves to have Coogs fans come out! NEXT WEEK: vs. Tulsa, vs. Cincinnati


4. Central Florida (11-3, 2-0): As every week passes, the Knights are starting to make their case for an NCAA Tournament selection. A lot of people didn't think that was possible when the season started.  UCF is now 2-0 in AAC play as they started out with a win over Tulane and then blowing out a solid Temple team 77-53. Central Florida continues to be one of the best rebounding and shot blocking teams in the nation and that's what leads to their great defense. I just feel like that lost to Penn could come back to hount them, but Johnny Dawkins has something brewing down in Florida. NEXT WEEK: vs ECU @ UConn.


5. Tulsa (7-6, 1-0): The Golden Hurricane opened up conference play with an ugly 61-59 overtime win over UConn. Frank Haith's team is very young and I thought they would get better as the year goes on and we will see if that happens come Wednesday night when they visit Houston. NEXT WEEK: @ Houston.


6. Memphis (10-4, 0-1): In their conference opener, Memphis lost a 58-54 dog fight to SMU. Neither of the Lawson's never got going.  The Tigers seemed to drain the shot clock and not get a good shot off.  That changed the next week when Memphis took care of a decent South Carolina team on the Saturday 70-54.  If Memphis can find away to force turnovers and play defense like they did against South Carolina then they could find themseleves playing in the NCAA Tournament. We already know they have playmakers on offense. NEXT WEEK: vs. UConn, @ Tulane


7. Temple (9-6, 0-2): What a non conference season Fran Dunphy and the Owls had. Well, that's all gone now.  Temple lost to Cincinnati 56-50 which is not a bad loss at all, but then getting demolshied by Central Florida? UCF is better than what everyone thought, but Temple had to win that.  They need to make some noise in the conference if they want to get back to the NCAA Tournament. NEXT WEEK: @ SMU, vs. ECU




8. East Carolina (9-6, 1-1): Jeff Lebo was on the hot seat coming into the year and he remains on it now.  ECU picked up a win in their first game over South Florida.  Freshman Elijah Hughes  showed how good he could be putting up a career high 19 points in a 10 point victory over the Bulls. I was looking for some fight in the game against SMU even though they came in as big underdogs and I didn't see it as SMU rolled 75-44. NEXT WEEK: @ Central Florida, @ Temple




9. UConn (5-8, 0-2): Who would of that UConn would be 5-8 to start the year.  The Huskies shot 12 percent in their first half against Houston in which they scored 12 points and eventually lost by a big margin.  UConn followed that lost up with another loss to Tulsa in Overtime.  Kevin Ollie's seat may be warming up. UConn is now playing for pride at this point.  The Huskies are not going to the NCAA Tournament this year. I know they have had a lot of injuries, but they also lost to Northeastern and Wagner at full strength.




10. South Florida (6-7, 0-2): The Bulls are 0-2 to start conference play. They 60-49 to East Carolina after committing almost the same amount of turnover as points in the first half, USF didn't look totally awful in the 2nd half.  South Florida got blown out by Houston on Saturday 70-56 at home.  It was once again a tail of two halves.  We are just a week and a half away from the USF/Tulane barn burner we have been waiting for. NEXT WEEK: @ SMU


11. Tulane (3-11, 0-2): The Green Wave played good in their first half game against Central Florida but it's gone all down hill since then.  Tulane went on to lose by 13.  It was much the same against Cincinnati when they were down 12 at the half, but lost by 36 with final score being 92-56.  Mike Dunleavy might want to work on some halftime adjustments.  Any way, Cameron Reynolds has been solid for Tulane this year, but that's about it. NEXT WEEK: vs. Memphis

Preview & Prediction: SMU Travels To The FedEx Forum To Take On Memphis.

American Athletic Conference play will tip off on Tuesday night when the SMU Mustangs travel to the FedEx Forum to take on Memphis. The game is set to tip at 9:00 for us guys over on the east coast and it will air on ESPNU.

SMU comes in at 10-3, but with zero bad losses so far.  They lost to USC and Boise on the road, two teams you would like to beat, but on the road those losses are forgivable.  They other lost came against Michigan.  Since losing to the Trojans and Broncos, SMU has won 6 in a row and that includes two beat downs against TCU and Stanford. 

SMU and first year head coach Tim Jankovich are winning with defense right now. The Mustangs are 13th in the country right now in scoring defense giving up just 59.8 points a game. During this six game win streak they have yet to give up more than 60 points in a game.  On Tuesday they will be going up against the American Preseason player of the year in Dedric Lawson for Memphis who is putting up 21 points and 11 rebounds a night for Memphis.

The Tigers also come in with a knew coach in Tubby Smith.  Memphis is 9-3 on the year with a bad loss to Monmouth, but came back with a win against Oklahoma in Norman.  SMU has a great defense, but Memphis is a top 25 team in offense putting up 84 points a game, so this will be a game of two different styles.

Last year SMU beat Memphis both times they played them. Last year SMU's Shake Milton played very well in both of these meetings.  Milton was a high recruit and can drive so Memphis and Tubby Smith need to keep the ball out of his hands. 

Memphis has been vulnerable on the defense end this season.  Of their twelve games this season, seven teams have put up at least 75 points on the Tigers.  This should create opportunities for Duke transfer and SMU leading scorer Semi Ojeleye who is averaging 21 points a game.  He is also shooting 45% from three where the Memphis defense has been suspect this year.

The SMU big man Ben Moore will have his hands full inside with both KJ and Dedric Lawson.  Memphis is one of the best team in the nation in rebounding this year at 22nd in the country.  So this will create plenty of times for 2nd chance points and we will see if they can convert. 

The Key to this game will be Markel Crawford.  Memphis will dominate the inside, but they do not have the defense to contain the shooting of Milton, Ojeleye, and others.  KJ and Dedric Lawson can't do everything so they need another scorer Crawford. Luckily, for Tubby Smith, Crawford has been that third scorer they needed after Austin Nichols transferred.  This is a game where Memphis can get into the NCAA conversation with a win. 

SMU starts conference play right on the bubble for the NCAA Tournament.  This is a game that tournament teams should win.  As for my prediction, I do think this will be a very tight game as both teams are coming in with momentum.  If this game stays in the sixties I think SMU wins, but if it's high scoring game then Lawson could take over. I'll 67-62 Mustangs.  SMU is just to talented on defense and Memphis needs more scorers then the Lawson boys.  As long as the SMU offense stays consistent the Memphis defense has proven that can't defend over time.