Taking A Look At Houston & Memphis Tournament Profiles

The American Conference is looking more and more like a two bid league, but if they want to get any more teams in the NCAA Tournament they will need Houston and Memphis do play well down the stretch. 


Houston's Profile:
Record: 16-7
RPI: 60
SOS 71
KenPom: 43
Good Wins: Rhode Island
Bad Losses: UCF, Harvard

Houston simply doesn't have enough good wins.  The Cougars are 1-3 against the Top 50 in RPI so they have had their chances.  According to bracketmatrix.com which tracks the top 84 bracketologist in the nation, just 5 of the 84 currently have the Cougars in.

Houston in certainly still in play for an at large bid because they still have some big games left.  The Cougars still play the top three teams in the conference; @ #11 Cincy vs, #25 SMU, and @ Memphis. Throw in the the AAC Tournament and the Cougars could still make a run at the tournament.

In their last 7 games Houston must beat Tulane, ECU, UConn, and Tulsa.  They probably need to win at least 2/3 of Cincinnati, SMU, and Memphis.  One more bad loss and the Cougars are out of consideration for the NCAA Tournament.

Memphis' Profile:
Record:  17-7
RPI: 83
SOS: 163
KenPom: 85
Good Wins: South Carolina
Bad Losses: UCF, Tulsa

At first glance, Houston's numbers a lot better than Memphis, but the Tigers beat Houston on the road.  On Bracketmatrix.com just 2 out of 84 bracketologist have Memphis in. Just like Houston, Memphis also has some opportunities upcoming. Memphis' loss to UCF on Saturday hurt them bad.

They also will play Cincy and SMU who are both ranked and Memphis will have to beat both to get in I believe.  In their final 7 games Tubby Smith's team has to go 6-1 and if that happens they still will have to get into the finals of the AAC Championship.

Although it seems unlikely, last year Tulsa got in and had a worse profile than both of these teams.  Regardless, Memphis and Houston has to win.  When they meet on Febuary 26th it may be an elimination game.

AAC Saturday Previews & Predictions: February 4th

American Conference in basketball is back here for action.  There are four games on the slate and the top four teams in the conference are all playing on Saturday.  Here's our weekly preview and prediction.


Tulane @ East Carolina 2:00
- Both of these teams sit near the bottom of the American conference, but both have played better lately. Tulane dropped two close games against UConn and Temple, both of which they were at least tied in the 2nd half. ECU on the other hand was thrashed by SMU, but lost in Memphis 57-50 and beat Tulsa 69-66.


- East Carolina simply has no offense. They are 364th in the nation in points scored a game at 61.1. Acting Head Coach Michael Perry is currently filling in for Jeff Lebo who recently had hip surgery. 


- BJ Tyson is their best player and he currently isn't doing much. Kentrell Barkley had back to back double-double's before the SMU game and is probably their hottest player right know.  All though they lack inside play they do get rebounds and play very solid defense.  Those are the reasons why they aren't sitting in last place and have two conference wins. 


- For Tulane, their leading scorer Cameron Reynolds is coming off of a career night against Temple in which he put up 29 points in a lost to the Owls.  Also big man Ryan Smith has been a pretty big positive for Mike Dunleavy this year.  But he will have a big job trying to keep ECU off the boards.


- ECU opened up as a 6.5 favorite in Vegas, but is now down to a 5 point favorite so all the money is going on Tulane. The Green Wave had played good lately so I think it's time for them to get a win.  But Ryan Smith along with guards Malik Morgan and other will have to keep ECU's bigs off the boards.


UConn @ #14 Cincinnati 4:00
- The Bearcats win streak is now at 13 after a big comeback win to beat Tulsa. 


- Cincinnati has improved mightily on offense this year and is always great defensively.


- I feel since Cincinnati could not make a bucket last game they are bound to come out hot for this game.  I firmly believe Cincinnati played their worst game of the year on Wednesday night.


- UConn has won three straight, but they were against the worst three teams in the conference in USF, Tulane, and ECU.  In may be what they needed to get out of their slump, but I still think they will have a lot of trouble with Cincinnati.


- UConn has got to make this game ugly because they simply do not have the offensive fire power to stay in this game.  Jalen Adams can't do it all.  They have to try to create 2nd chance points like Tulsa did against Cincy so Amida Brimah is going to half to play well. 


- Cincinnati's is honoring their 1992 final four team in front of a sold out 5/3rd arena. 


- Kevin Ollie is in his 5th season as coach of the Huskies and he has never won inside 5/3rd arena, he is 0-4.


- As long as Cincinnati doesn't turn the ball over they should win. I feel pretty confident with the ball in Senior point guards Troy Caupain's hands.


- For my prediction, I feel like Cincinnati has too many weapons.  Take your pick, Troy Caupain, Jacob Evans, Gary Clark, Kyle Washington, even Kevin Johnson can all do some serious damage.  The Bearcats win 80-65.


Memphis @ Central Florida 5:00
- Memphis is the best shot the American has to get a third team in the tournament and this game is a must win to stay in the tournament hunt. 


- A couple weeks ago Memphis beat Central Florida 70-65 in which the Tigers gave UCF every chance to win that game.


- UCF is in need of a win.  After starting AAC play 5-1 they have dropped 4 straight and currently sit 5-5 in the conference. 


- Central Florida should dominate the boards in this game. They were +13 in the first meeting, but that is why I appreciate the job Tubby Smith has done. They get pounded on the boards every game and yet Memphis is still 15-5. 


- Memphis loves to distribute and they lead the league in assist because they have so many ball handlers.  They do not turn the ball over while that seems to be an Achilles heel for Central Florida. 


- Tacko Fall played his best game of the season in their first meeting scoring 16 and grabbing 13 rebounds. 


- Defense is the key for Central Florida.  They must slow the Lawson's done somehow. The Knights are 7th in the nation in scoring allowing 61 while Memphis puts up over 77 points a game so something has to give. 


- This will be a tight game, just like everyone of Memphis', but Dedric Lawson will be to much and Memphis needs this win in a bad way.  Memphis is a 2 point favorite right now and Tubby Smith and Memphis have been money in close games this year.  Tigers win 75-71.


SMU @ Tulsa 7:00
- I've been saying all year the hardest team to figure out in the AAC is Temple, but now I think it is Tulsa.  The Golden were projected the finish 9th in the preseason poll.  If they didn't choke late against #14 Cincinnati they would be 7-2 and in solo third.


- SMU needs this because they are the only team that can beat Cincinnati.  So a loss would really hurt their chances at winning the regular season conference tittle.


- Tulsa is starting to get physical on the boards in conference play.  They crushed Cincinnati who is usually a good rebounding team.  SMU is just as good with every player standing between 6"3-6"8.


- Ben Moore, Shake Milton, and Semi Ojeleye have SMU on tear lately.  Ever since their loss to Cincinnati SMU has won games by 16, 20, 21, 5, & 40 points.  That's called domination.


- Semi Ojeleye is the best player on this team and everybody knows that, but Shake Milton has put up at least 19 points in the Mustangs last 5 games.  Along with him Moore, and Sterling Brown, there are not too many teams that can beat the Ponies.


- Vegas has SMU favored by 6.5 and I think the SMU defense will stifle Tulsa.  If Semi Ojeleye can play decent then SMU should win.  Plus I have no confidence after the way Tulsa "attempting" to close out Cincinnati on Wednesday.




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Updated: If The AAC Tournament Started Today, Here's What The Bracket Would Look Like

We are now one month away from the beginning of the American Athletic Conference Tournament.  This year it will be held in Storrs, Connecticut at the XL Center. It was held here two years ago when SMU won it.  Last years champion, the UConn Huskies will have home court advantage this year.  Although it is not on their home floor it is just a short drive from campus. 




The tournament will take place on Thursday, March 9th - Sunday March 12th.  All games will be broadcast on the ESPN Family of networks. The top 5 teams in the regular season standings will receive a first round bye in the tournament.


*These projections are based on the current standings and if the regular season ended today.

- For more on the tournament visit the American Championship Central.

ROUND 1 Thursday March 9th

GAME 1: #9 East Carolina (3-8) vs. #8 Temple (4-8) 3:30 ESPNU

GAME 2: #10 Tulane (1-11) vs. #7 Central Florida (6-6) 6:00 ESPN News

GAME 3: #11 South Florida (0-12) vs. #6 UConn (6-5) 8:00 ESPN News

- Tulsa gets the #5 Seed and first round bye over UConn based on the head-to-head tiebreaker.

- More on AAC Tournament tiebreakers here.

ROUND 2: Friday March 10th

GAME 4: #1 Cincinnati (11-0) vs. Winner of Game 1 (ECU vs Temple) 12:00 ESPN 2

GAME 5: #4 Houston (8-4) vs. #5 Tulsa (6-5) 2:00 ESPN 2

GAME 6: #2 SMU (10-1) vs. Winner of Game 2 (UCF vs Tulane) 7:00 ESPN 2

GAME 7: #3 Memphis (8-4) vs. Winner of Game 3 (USF vs UConn) 9:00 ESPN 2

- Memphis gets the #3 seed over Houston based on tiebreaking rules.

ROUND 3: Saturday March 11th (Semifinal)

GAME 8: Game 4 Winner (Cincy/ECU/Temple) vs Game 5 Winner (Tulsa/Houston) 3:00 ESPN 2

GAME 9: Game 6 Winner (SMU/UCF/Tulane) vs Game 7 Winner (Memphis/USF/UConn) 5:00 ESPN 2

ROUND 4: Sunday March 12th (Championship)

GAME 10: Game 8 Winner vs Game 9 Winner 3:15 ESPN

Here it is in Bracket Form.

American Conference Basketball In Review: Tulsa's Big Win, Memphis, UConn's Ugly Wins, Cincy Takes care Of Buisness And Houston Stays Alive

Another week off American hoops is in the books and here's the wrap.


Central Florida 66 Tulsa 77: This game was a lot closer than the score indicated, but none the less Tulsa gets their 6th league win.  Central Florida lead for most of the 2nd half until a huge run for Tulsa to close out the game. UCF lost the game in that span.  They went 7 minutes without a basket.  They finally ended that drought with a BJ Taylor 3 with just 58 seconds left. The last 8 minutes was a 25-11 run if favor of the Golden Hurricane.


What a job Frank Haith has done with this extremely young Tulsa team.  Golden Hurricane were projected 9th in the AAC Coaches poll, but sit alone in 3rd at 6-2.  It was one of the few seniors on this team that lead the scoring for Tulsa in Pat Birt. Birt put up 19 points including 3 three pointers.


Tulsa plays the two best teams in the American next week in Cincinnati and SMU and they are both at home.  Two upset wins and that COULD get Tulsa on the bubble conversation which nobody was expecting this year.  It's a tall task, but it is possible with both games being at home.


For Central Florida on the other hand, any chance they had at an at large bid is probably gone. They sit at 14-7 and 5-4 in the AAC which is still better than expected, but the turnover bug has killed them. They had 16 turnovers yesterday compared to Tulsa's 10.  Also BJ Taylor scored 23 but he needs some help, he can't do it all. Central Florida also has a huge stretch with Memphis, Houston and Cincinnati upcoming.


East Carolina 50 Memphis 57: This game was very ugly and that's usually how East Carolina wins.  Memphis could not afford a bad loss at home and expect to still make the NCAA Tournament.   Both Dedric and KJ Lawson both struggled early as ECU took a 22-19 lead into the break, but Jimario Rivers got Memphis out to a big lead in the 2nd half. The Tigers could not pull away, but it was good enough for a W. Rivers led Memphis with 15 points.


Memphis just needs to keep winning.  Tubby Smith's team is starting to creep into the "First Four Out" category in most bracket projections.  Honestly, Memphis should win their next 6 games and if they happen to lose one then it will be a bad loss. 


They can get away with a bad offensive performance against a team like ECU, but they can't struggle like this down the stretch.  Ecspecially, the Preseason Player of the Year Dedric Lawson who scored just 8 points.  KJ Lawson had a double-double with 12 points and 19; yes 19 rebounds.


As for ECU, they are getting better. Interim coach Michael Perry has this team showing some fight. They lost on the road to UConn and Memphis in two highly competed contest and pulled off an upset win over Tulsa.  Coach Perry is doing a pretty good job considering how much this team lacks offensive talent.


Tulane 68 UConn 78: The Green Wave played their best game of the year through the first 35 minutes but it came crashing down in the final 5 minutes of the game. Kenton Facey and Amida Brimah had 20 & 18 respectfully as UConn escaped an upset on Saturday.  The difference was UConn's defense down the final stretch as Tulane crumbled late. Believe it or not, Tulane led this game 58-55.  Huskies also finished +14 on the boards.


At this point for UConn it's all about improving their seeding for the conference tournament. UConn is always dangerous in March and plus they will have home court advantage for the AAC Tournament. The Huskies are 10-11, but they need to build momentum for the tournament and get a first round bye.  Currently, they would be the #7 seed and play in the first round with a rematch against #10 Tulane.


For the most part it seemed like it would be Mike Dunleavy's biggest win of the year. You can't knock Tulane for effort. They are 4-17 on the year and had every reason not show up, but they just could not hit a shot in the closing minutes. Ryan Smith held his own with his baby hook shot, but had just one rebound before fouling out.  You can't allow a team to go on a 17-0 second half run and expect to win, no matter how hot Tulane started the game.


Houston 79 Temple 66:  Big bounce back win for Houston.  The Coogs got back on track to keep their NCAA hopes alive. Rob Gray Jr had 28 points and was perfect from the free throw line. If the season ended right now he would have my vote for conference player of the year. Temple is a good defensive team but they had no answer last night.  Enechionyia kept Temple within fighting distance for the Owls. He had struggled his last couple of games, but go back on track with 16 points. 


This Cougar has one of the best guard play in the conference and they showed it last night with Gray and Dotson combining for 48 points. Houston is 15-7 and needs some big wins to make the big dance.  They play UCF, Tulane, & Tulsa in their next three and need wins in all off them.


For Temple, this continues to be the most confusing team in the nation .  This team has beaten two top 15 teams currently in Florida State and West Virginia and it looked like they would make the tournament when conference play started, but they are at 2-7 in the AAC and have zero chance of making the big dance.


South Florida 53 Cincinnati 94: It was all Bearcats from the start to finish.  I thought Cincinnati may have a let down game after the big Crosstown Shootout victory, but they didn't.  It never crossed my mind that would lose, but I thought it would be around 10-15 points and boy was I wrong. The Bearcats forced 24 turnovers and won their 12th straight game. 


Cincinnati will have Tulsa coming up Wednesday.  The Bearcats at this point should be counting the days until they face SMU in Dallas. This is a top 15 basketball team. 


For South Florida this one was over before it started with their leading scorer Geno Thorpe out with an injury.  USF takes on Memphis and Temple next, but I think they will get their first win over ECU in a couple of weeks. Better days ahead for Bull basketball fans. 

Crosstown Shootout Preview & Prediction: Inside The Numbers

One of the greatest rivalries in college basketball will take center stage tonight at 7PM. We take you inside the most important stats and show you who has the edge in this one. 


KenPom Rank: Cincinnati 19th Xavier 29th
I consider KenPom.com as one of the best sites to get college basketball rankings from and Cincinnati has the advantage in it. KemPom takes into account who you played and how well you played against them. These rankings are basically strictly on stats unlike most polls where it is just someone's opinion.
Field Goal Percentage: Cincinnati 48% Xavier 45%
Who is going to make their shots? This one is big for Cincinnati because Xavier will double on Gary Clark and Kyle Washington so when they kick it out the guards have to make shots. Good news for Cincinnati is that their guards in Kevin Johnson, Jacob Evans, and Troy Caupain have been making shots lately.  We all know Xavier is talented on offense, but the question is how will they get open shots against one of the best defenses in the nation?
Turnover Margin: Cincinnati +2.5 Xavier +1.2
This one is obvious. Every time you here of a big game and you are reading a preview the turnover battle will always come up. Both teams are forcing more than their giving it up, but Mick Cronin and that fierce defense have the edge in this one.
Rebounding: Xavier +8 Cincinnati +5
Both teams get a lot of chances at 2nd points. This is where players for UC like Gary Clark have made their shots this year.  This stat shows just how physical this game will be and UC coach Mick Cronin said "It's amazing how they are +7 on the boards in the Big East." "That's tough to do." The Musketeers have 8 players who are averaging at least 3 rebounds a game. Trevon Blueitt and Rashid Gaston are both grabbing over 6 a game. This could be a huge stat and ultimately provide who wins this game.
Getting To The Line:
Xavier is one of the best teams in the nation at getting to line. They took almost 50 free throws against Georgetown on Sunday. On the flipside, Cincinnati does a great job not fouling.  Teams do not get to the line to much against the Bearcats.  Xavier has a lot of guards who can drive to the basket.
Free Throw Percentage: Xavier 69% Cincinnati 66%
If this game is close this could be the biggest stat of them all. Both teams have struggled big time with this. Cincinnati's Troy Caupain and Jacob Evans used to be automatic, but their struggling this year. Although Cincy has gotten better of late, they still rank 271st in the nation in Free Throw Percentage. For Xavier, this probably cost them the game against Butler and Creighton, but seemed to find their stroke back against Georgetown.
Home Court Advantage: Cincinnati
Bearcats getting to play in front of a huge sold-out 5/3rd arena is huge. The last 8/10 shootout meeting have gone to the team who played at home.  Throw in the fact that Cincinnati has won 17 straight home games is something that Bearcat fans should be happy about. (This does not include the years it was played at US Bank Arena.)
History: Xavier
Has Won 3 in A Row and 7/10. Although Cincinnati has the all-time advantage 49-34, the Muskies have dominated as of late.
Prediction: Cincinnati 67 Xavier 63:
It really would not shock if Xavier won this game at all and I think they very easily could. Cincy just needs this game so much. If they lose this one, X fans may have the right to say "It's not a rivalry if one team wins all the time..." With that being said, I think Gary Clark will be too much Xavier as puts up 20 points and 12 rebounds.  Enjoy the best rivalry in college hoops tonight.

Quadri Moore's Journey of Hard Work Finally Pays Off

Junior Forward Quadri Moore played the best game of his career on Saturday Night at Tulane. After the game Cronin was sure to praise Moore for his work and contribution to the team this year.  Moore was the reason why Cincinnati was able to pull away late in the 1st half.


Moore scored a career high 14 points along with 3 three-pointers.  11 came in the first half.  Moore was forced into action after Kyle Washington and Tre Scott both picked up two quick fouls along with Jacob Evans.  After taking over the first couple of minutes it came up in Mick Cronin's halftime interview. Cronin responded by saying "He's our secret weapon, the pride and joy of Lindon, New Jersey.  A lot of people in his situation would've transferred or quit."


The reason for this? Moore has been extremely unlucky since he joined UC.  He started out as a 4 star recruit but dropped to as low as a 2 star before signing with UC as a 3 star.  After a rough start to his UC career Moore played just 8 minutes as a freshman. His freshman year ended with him being show on sport shows around the world as he was dunked on by the Kentucky big man.

After his difficult year, Moore's minutes were lowered to just over 7 a game and that's not easy when you were once a 4 star recruit. Fans were also starting to give it to him as once he touched the ball the crowd would boo. Not every UC fan, but there a few animated fans that clearly did want the ball in his hands.  Moore looked as if he would finally see his breakout moment last year against St. Joe's.  After big's were in some trouble early Quadri entered.  He immediately gave UC a quick spark with 6 points and he even gave UC the lead. After just a couple of minutes Moore went down with a leg injury and never returned to the game as Cincinnati lost 78-76.

 

This is where Cronin's quote would come in.  "A lot of people would've transferred or quit." Quadri Moore is the first person on the floor every day at practice and the last one to leave according to coaches.  Weather it's Free Throws or anything basketball related he's doing.

Moore was quoted saying the Cincinnati Enquire "It feels good, I'm part of the team too. I'm not on a bunch of people's scouting report, so it's makes life a lot easier. If feels good to have a day like this every once in a while."

Moore's minutes were decreased even more this year until that game. Regardless of how long he plays Mick Cronin is going to make it clear that Moore is going to work very hard.  At the end of the day, everyone wants to see a guy like Quadri Moore succeed. 

Frank Haith and Tulsa Are Surpassing Expectations This Year

Tulsa fans entered this year expecting a rough season.  With 9 seniors on the team last year there wasn't many fans expecting a good season, especially after a loss to Jacksonville State and then a blowout to Wichita State to start the year.


The Golden Hurricane have been able to straighten things out.  This year they have two seniors, Pat Birt is the only one who gets any playing time and he has been a leader on this team. Tulsa has 10 new comers on this team who were not on it last year. 


The Golden Hurricane currently rank 117th in KenPom, their highest ranking of the season.  They 3-1 to begin AAC play with wins over Memphis, Temple, and UConn.  Their lone loss was a 64-61 nail bitter to Houston.  Throw in the fact that the Golden Hurricane were favored in none of these 4 games and that's what makes it impressive.  They have been lead on this hot streak by Junior Etou who has had a double-double in their last two games.  They most important key in Tulsa's streak has been not turning the ball over.


Tulsa's next three games will come against the worst teams in the AAC; ECU, South Florida, and Tulane.  So, Tulsa has a pretty nice shot at being 6-1 in the AAC when they play the league leader, Cincy and SMU back to back. Both the Mustangs and the Bearcats will come to the Reynolds Center. 


Another thing from conference play I noticed is that Tulsa has not faltered down the stretch.  They went on an 11-3 run in the final 6 minutes to beat Temple 70-68, they went on a 12-4 run to close Memphis out 81-71 to end the game.  In their first conference win of the year, they tied UConn late and eventually beat them 61-59 in overtime.  You usually won't see young teams like this be so clutch in the closing minutes. 


If Tulsa can take care of business in these next three games, you may want to keep a close eye on them.  That would put them at 6-1 in the AAC and in a position to get a top three spot in the American Conference Tournament.